According to Wood Mackenzie and the Community Solar Access Alliance, by 2028, the cumulative installed capacity of community solar in the United States will reach 14GW.
U.S. community solar installations have been growing since the mid-2000s, but installations are down 6% year-over-year in 2022 and 13% in the first quarter of 2023.
Research firm Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables said this was largely due to supply chain uncertainty over the past year, as well as grid integration and siting issues that have hampered market growth in key states such as Massachusetts and Maine.
However, the growth rate of annual installed capacity will pick up starting in 2024 and will continue for the next five years. By 2028, the cumulative installed capacity of the US community solar market will reach 14GW, but this forecast does not include new projects that may lead to a large increase in installed capacity.
"The continued success of programs in New York and Illinois and aggressive policy updates in Maryland, Minnesota and New Jersey have driven recent growth," said Wood Mackenzie research analyst Caitlin Connelly.
She added that California's newly proposed plan has the potential to account for 20 percent of Wood Mackenzie's national outlook for the period 2024-2028.
The study also highlights other factors that may spur the growth of community solar in the United States. For the purposes of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), community solar developers are eligible for any of the three investment tax credit bonus surcharges set out in recent IRS guidance, but most likely Work on getting the low-income community add-on first.
Additionally, the EPA's Solar for All fund, part of a $27 billion greenhouse gas reduction fund, will provide up to $7 billion in funding for community solar to support the creation and expansion of A community solar program focused on supporting low-income communities.
Matt Hargarten, vice president of the Community Solar Access Coalition, said, "These projections do not include states that have newly passed community solar laws, nor do they include the billions of dollars in federal grants that states are expected to receive to expand community solar access." use.
If regulators and lawmakers continue to ramp up, our projections are shallow when we think about how many people in the U.S. will be able to enjoy the benefits of community solar by the end of the decade. "