European demand recovers under the differentiation of overseas markets
As of May 19, with the spread of the “third wave” of the global epidemic, the number of new cases in Russia, Brazil, Turkey and other countries has continued to rise, and the lockdown period in countries such as India and Colombia has continued to be extended to the end of May. The recovery process of the photovoltaic market has slowed down again.
On the other hand, the policies of many countries in Europe and the United States have loosened the development of photovoltaic projects and further eased restrictions. At present, 33 states in the United States have lifted restrictions on economic activities, and the remaining states are also expected to resume work in phases in early June. The epidemic situation was relatively stable after the resumption of work in European countries such as Germany and Italy. The bidding schedule delayed by the epidemic in many places was put on the agenda again, and the construction of photovoltaic projects and photovoltaic orders are expected to be further promoted.
In terms of renewable energy policy, France officially released a new energy plan, and plans to bid for ground power stations twice a year, with a maximum of 1GW in each phase, and three biddings for rooftop projects, with a maximum of 300MW in each phase. The German government, the main photovoltaic market in Europe, announced that it has confirmed the removal of the 52GW photovoltaic subsidy ceiling. At the same time, the country will start the revision of the Renewable Energy Law (EEG) in the second half of this year, which is expected to bring more growth to the development of photovoltaics in the future.量空间。 Amount of space.
According to the installed capacity disclosed by various countries in the first quarter, although the overall overseas installed capacity market is showing a downward trend, there are also dark horses like Poland that have emerged. According to data from the Polish Power Grid Operator (PSE), as of the beginning of May, With a capacity of 1832.7MW, the average monthly installed capacity of photovoltaics has stabilized at more than 100MW since 2020.
In addition, the Brazilian government, which is deeply mired in the epidemic, also gave dividends to photovoltaic projects. At present, Brazil has approved the 540.21 MW photovoltaic project developed by the Spanish Renewable Energy Company (Solatio Energia) to enter the National Infrastructure Development Incentive Mechanism (REIDI). It is reported that the total investment in the project exceeds 1.51 billion reals (256.6 million US dollars / 237.9 million euros) . After being approved to enter REIDI, it is expected that this company will save about 155 million reais.
Declining prices accelerate supply chain reshuffle
On the other hand, in the case of a slowdown in external demand, the supply chain started a price reduction model at the end of March. During the period from March to May this year, LONGi has cut its monocrystalline silicon wafer prices three times in a row. The public quotation of monocrystalline G1 wafers has dropped from $0.419/piece at the end of March to the current $0.336/piece. According to the quotation from EnergyTrend, the new energy research center of TrendForce Consulting, around April, the price of polysilicon products in the overseas market fell the most among all links, with a drop of nearly 30%, and the price of major silicon wafer products fell. Both are more than 15%, and the prices of solar cells and components have fallen by more than 5%.
In addition, according to the dynamics of the photovoltaic glass market, photovoltaic glass is generally in a situation where there is no market. The price of photovoltaic glass has dropped from 29 yuan/㎡ in 2019 to 26 yuan/㎡. If the demand does not improve significantly, the price may have a further breakthrough. 25 yuan/㎡.
Under the influence of the epidemic, the expansion of investment capacity in the domestic market has slowed since the second quarter. Only three projects, namely Oriental Hope, Zhonghuan, and Yuze, have invested more in China.
Judging from the recent declining supply chain trading situation, under the influence of the slowdown of demand in key overseas markets for second- and third-tier companies, companies can only increase market competitiveness by reducing prices. After the release of new capacity and the advancement of new products, , The clearing of outdated production capacity in the market will accelerate, and the concentration of photovoltaic enterprises will further increase.
Tracking the recent situation of overseas photovoltaic companies, the performance of each company in the first quarter of 2020 has generally increased, but it is expected that the weak overseas demand from the second quarter will continue to affect the company's operations. With the spread of the epidemic, the demand for photovoltaics has been interrupted and the development of power station projects has been restricted. Except for a few project installers who remain optimistic about the market outlook, various companies have withdrawn their expectations for 2020 performance. Facing the complex changes in the international market, under the trend of differentiation between overseas markets and corporate orders, photovoltaic companies in all sectors are faced with challenges without exception. Although companies do not have a clearer judgment on future market expectations, the photovoltaic landscape is constantly being reshaped. To seize the vitality of the market, it is more necessary for companies to cooperate with each other as a "good strategy."