Recently, Philippe Malbranche, Assistant Director-General of the International Photovoltaic Alliance, pointed out at an industry conference that the cost of photovoltaic hydrogen production is expected to be as low as US$2/kg when the bidding price of photovoltaic projects continues to break through the lowest value. The cost of hydrogen production from fossil fuels is comparable.
Photovoltaic electricity prices continue to set new lows to promote the development of green hydrogen
Industry analysis agency Standard & Poor's Global Platts quoted Philippe Malbranche as saying that at present, two-thirds of the cost of renewable energy electrolyzed water hydrogen production project comes from the energy consumption of electrolyzed water, and the other 1/3 comes from the electrolyzer. This means that the cost of generating electricity from renewable energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics is currently the main source of green hydrogen production costs. To reduce the cost of green hydrogen, the focus is on reducing the cost of green power.
"In fact, at present, the cost of photovoltaic power generation in some countries and regions can reach US$0.01-US$0.12/kWh. This photovoltaic power generation quotation is enough to give Green Hydrogen economic and large-scale development potential. Photovoltaic hydrogen production has reached the "critical point" of large-scale development." Philippe Malbranche said.
Taking the Gulf region as an example, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency's calculations, at the beginning of 2020, Qatar Electricity and Hydropower’s photovoltaic power plant project transaction price has been as low as 0.0157 US dollars/kWh. The low photovoltaic cost is expected to make the Gulf region an export of green hydrogen. Hot land.
Not only that, according to an assessment report released by S&P Global Platts in August this year, in southern Australia, there is a phenomenon of excess photovoltaic power generation during certain periods. The use of photovoltaic power generation to produce hydrogen and ammonia can consume excess electricity. Green hydrogen, The Green Ammonia project even offset part of the cost of electricity consumption, which has further improved the economics of photovoltaic hydrogen production.
Under this circumstance, with the gradual decline in the manufacturing cost of global electrolyzed hydrogen production equipment, the cost of photovoltaic hydrogen production is expected to exceed the US$2/kg mark and drop to the level of US$1.5-2/kg, which is generally higher than the current level of US$3. The production level of USD/kg has dropped significantly.
The competitiveness of fossil fuel hydrogen production is "discounted"
While the cost of green hydrogen continues to fall, the cost of hydrogen production from fossil fuels is on the rise. In November of this year, the industry research organization ICIS issued a report stating that the cost of hydrogen production from coal and natural gas in many European countries has risen rapidly due to the increase in natural gas and coal prices. After the winter, the production cost of hydrogen production from fossil fuels is about 5.5. U.S. dollars/kg, the highest even exceeded 8 U.S. dollars/kg; in contrast, the cost of hydrogen production from renewable energy has been stable at around 4 U.S. dollars/kg for a long time. It should be noted that in 2019, the data released by the International Energy Agency showed that the cost of hydrogen production from coal and natural gas basically remained at the level of US$1.7/kg, which also means that the cost of hydrogen production from fossil fuels has at least doubled this year. Fan.
Not only that, according to the British "Guardian" report, previously, the Australian National University has released research showing that due to the high greenhouse gas emissions of fossil fuel hydrogen production, the high cost of carbon emissions and the risk of stranded fossil fuel investment have also caused it. The cost is higher than that of green hydrogen. In addition, the methane emission problem of hydrogen production from natural gas is relatively serious. Efforts to control methane emission will further push up the cost of gray hydrogen and blue hydrogen.
Bridgetvan Dorsten, a hydrogen energy research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, a market research firm, said recently that driven by multiple factors, the competitiveness of fossil fuel hydrogen production this year has dropped significantly compared with a year ago, and the cost competitiveness of global wind-solar hydrogen production has been greatly improved. .
The cost of photovoltaic hydrogen production may drop by 50% before 2025
In terms of electrolyzers, according to the latest forecast issued by Wood Mackenzie, by 2025, the global hydrogen production costs in alkaline electrolyzers and proton exchange membrane electrolyzers are expected to drop by 35% and 50%, respectively. Solid oxide water electrolysis The cost of the tank is expected to "will also drop significantly in the next six to eight years." The agency's analysis believes that the scale of electrolyzed water hydrogen production, the increase in market participants, and a higher degree of automation will all become factors that promote the cost reduction of electrolyzer manufacturing.
BridgetvanDorsten said that the reduction of the initial investment of the project will help reduce the production cost of hydrogen. Coupled with the increasingly cheap renewable energy purchase agreement and the level of green power utilization on the market, the market potential of the competitive renewable energy electrolysis hydrogen production has already Start to release. For example, in countries with abundant renewable energy resources, the cost of renewable energy power is even expected to be further reduced to the level of 0.01 USD/kWh, and the cost of green hydrogen can also be stabilized at the level of 1 USD/kg.
With the continuous expansion of photovoltaic installations in countries around the world, photovoltaic hydrogen production projects are also constantly being launched. The industry generally predicts that the photovoltaic hydrogen production market will further expand in the next ten years, and it is even expected to "feed back" photovoltaics and become a new driver for the growth of global photovoltaic installations. power.
According to data released by the International Energy Agency, as of 2020, the global hydrogen production capacity of electrolyzed water is about 300,000 kilowatts, of which the energy used is mainly renewable energy electricity. In addition, judging from the new green hydrogen projects that have been planned in various countries, a total of about 30 countries have planned new electrolyzed water hydrogen production capacity. It is estimated that by 2026, the global electrolyzed water hydrogen production capacity will reach 1,700 kWh, which can be promoted. Renewable energy power will add an additional 18 million kilowatts or more of installed capacity. Among them, China, Chile, Spain and Australia will become the leading forces in the next five years for new hydrogen production capacity from renewable energy, and their market share will account for more than 85% of the global total.