Resta Energy analysis shows that soaring manufacturing materials and transportation costs may affect the 50GW (56%) of the global utility photovoltaic development plan in 2022. Rising commodity prices and supply chain bottlenecks may cause the delay or even cancellation of some of these projects, thereby affecting the demand for solar power generation and consumer pricing.
Driven by the increase in the price of core components, the manufacturing cost of photovoltaic modules has soared from less than US$0.20 per watt (Wp) in 2020 to US$0.26-0.28 per watt in the second half of 2021, an increase of nearly 50% in one year. .
An important driver of this surge is the cost of polysilicon (the core component of photovoltaic manufacturing) that has risen by more than 300%. In addition, since January 2020, other raw materials (silver, copper, aluminum and glass) have also steadily climbed, increasing the pressure on module prices.
David Dixon, senior renewable energy analyst at Resta Energy, said: "Just a few days before COP26, the utility solar industry is facing one of the most severe challenges. The current bottleneck is not expected to be in the next 12 months. Alleviated, which means that developers and offtakers will have to decide whether to reduce profit margins, postpone the project or increase the offtake price in order to achieve financial settlement of the project."
In addition to rising material costs, transportation is another element in the supply chain, which poses huge challenges for developers and module suppliers. Transportation costs continue to rise, playing a greater role in overall production capital expenditures. Before 2021, photovoltaic transportation costs have the least impact on overall production costs. However, shipping delays and bottlenecks during the epidemic have caused prices to rise by nearly 500%, from US$0.005 per Wp in September 2019 to US$0.03 per Wp in October 2021.
Modules and related transportation costs usually account for one-quarter to one-third of the total capital expenditure of the project, which together constitute the largest item of project costs. When the module cost and transportation cost increase, it will have a significant impact on the project economy.
Resta Energy conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for power plants of different sizes, and compared last year's module and transportation costs with current costs. The results show that the LCOE of new projects has increased by 10-15%, which is a significant cost increase for most projects scheduled to be implemented in 2022. Given that the project is at risk, developers may have to negotiate a higher power purchase agreement (PPA) or absorb part of the cost increase, and accept higher project costs and lower profits.
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