Although only 4.2GW of utility-scale photovoltaic power plants were installed in the United States in H1 in 2022, a sharp drop from the same period last year, the analysis shows that the United States is facing an explosion of new photovoltaic installations in the second half of the year.
1. The policy is erratic and has a huge impact
U.S. PV power plant developers plan to add a total of 17.8 GW of utility-scale solar PV capacity in 2022, according to preliminary statistics from the U.S. Energy Administration in June 2022. But in the first six months of 2022, only 4.2 GW of new capacity was added to the grid, less than half of the industry's half-yearly planned capacity. In other words, in H1 2022, about 20% of the new photovoltaic installations planned for the whole year have been delayed.
Preliminary data from the U.S. Energy Administration for January-June 2022 show that new PV installations are delayed by an average of 4.4 GW per month, compared with an average of 2.6 GW in the same period in 2021. The EIA categorized factors that could lead to delays as broad economic factors, such as supply chain constraints, labor shortages and high component prices, as well as generator project-specific factors, such as obtaining permits or test equipment.
But in fact, everyone who pays attention to photovoltaics around the world knows that the culprit that caused such a serious impact is naturally the "201 tariff extension" and "Southeast Asia anti-circumvention investigation" among the US Department of Energy, the Department of Commerce, and the Department of Justice. ". Since the beginning of the year, various analysts including Wood Mac and the American Solar Photovoltaic Industry Association have believed that the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in the United States in 2022 will decrease by 20% compared with last year.
2. Ready to go, the climax is now
Ground photovoltaic power plants are greatly affected by the price of photovoltaic components and the supply chain. Therefore, the installed capacity of utility-level photovoltaic power plants in the United States has declined year-on-year. Compared with other countries in the world, it is not only the ground photovoltaic power plants in the United States that are affected. In China, India, Germany and other places, distributed installed capacity has become the main force, and its growth far exceeds the trend of ground photovoltaic power plants.
The U.S. Department of Energy's EIA's monthly survey, which detailed the progress of project developers in four stages of "testing, building, permitting or planning", found that most of the projects that will come online in the next 18 months are under construction. About 1.9 GW is under construction, and some projects have been delayed but are still scheduled to come online in 2022. In most cases, reporting delays are six months or less, the EIA said.
In February this year, despite the extension of the 201 tariffs in the United States, the exemption from the doubling of bifacial modules and battery quotas turned the "delay" into a "major positive"; although the sudden "anti-circumvention investigation" in April made some orders urgently "Hold" "Yes, but another "waiver" by the Presidential Decree in early June will only speed up the shipment of these "dropshipment" orders. A doubling of battery import quotas would also double the volume of U.S.-made PV modules to meet some of the installed capacity growth.
Therefore, in the second half of 2022, U.S.-made photovoltaic modules and orders previously held in emergency "Hold" will be the first to be used for emergency. U.S. utility-scale power station developers originally planned to add 17.8GW in 2022, leaving 13.6GW to be built. If 10GW can be completed in the second half of the year, the annual installed capacity of utility-scale photovoltaic power plants will reach 14.2GW. Coupled with the explosive growth of distributed households, community photovoltaics, and industrial and commercial distribution in the world, even if the United States maintains the 5GW new growth achieved in the first half of the year and adds 10GW of distributed distribution throughout the year, all new photovoltaic installations in the United States in 2022 will also be added. Realize 24GW, more than 2021.
From this, it is expected that the United States may usher in 15-20GW of new photovoltaic installed capacity in the second half of the year, which may increase by 10-20% year-on-year, and a new round of photovoltaic climax is coming.