The latest data released by French power grid operator Enedis shows that throughout 2023, France's newly installed photovoltaic capacity will be approximately 3.14 GW, an increase of 30% from 2022, setting another record high. As of the end of 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in France will exceed 17 GW.
However, France's photovoltaic development performance seems to be impressive, but it still lags behind other European countries such as Germany. Because France did not meet its renewable energy targets in 2020 and the French government did not take any remedial measures, it may currently face economic penalties from the EU. It is worth noting that against the above background, France on the one hand announced that it would accelerate its support for the development of the photovoltaic industry and issued favorable policies; on the other hand, it excluded renewable energy from the latest draft energy bill and did not even set a specific installation target, giving The future development of renewable energy brings uncertainty.
Installed capacity reaches new high
Development goals are constantly updated
According to data from Enedis, in the fourth quarter of 2023, the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in France was 921 MW. Demand during the traditional peak season remained strong, driving France's total newly installed photovoltaic capacity to increase significantly last year. At the same time, Enedis revealed that the data currently announced is not final and the actual data is expected to be higher.
Daniel Boulle, chairman of the French Solar Energy Association, said: "We reasonably predict that in 2024, the scale of new photovoltaic power generation installations in France will further expand to more than 4 GW, and the performance of the photovoltaic industry will continue to be consolidated."
However, according to industry media Recharge, the development achievements of France's photovoltaic industry are not worth bragging about. France still lags behind other European countries in the promotion of renewable energy. Under the EU's carbon neutrality goal, France faces greater pressure to develop renewable energy. In 2022, France proposed that the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation would reach 20 gigawatts by 2026. At that time, calculations showed that to achieve this goal, France would need to deploy about 2 gigawatts of photovoltaics every year.
However, last year, France updated its photovoltaic development goals: by 2030, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation will reach 60 GW, an increase of 20 GW from the 40 GW target proposed in 2019. In addition, France also proposed that by 2050, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation will reach 100 GW.
The continuous improvement of photovoltaic installation targets has put forward higher requirements for the development of the French photovoltaic industry. To achieve the 2030 goal, France needs to deploy more than 6 GW of photovoltaics every year; to meet the 2050 goal, France needs to deploy more than 3 GW of photovoltaics every year.
The proportion is low
Plan to increase project auction volume
Household photovoltaics have always been the mainstay of French photovoltaic installations. The Enedis report pointed out that in 2023, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in France reached a new high, mainly driven by household photovoltaics. The scale of newly installed household photovoltaic power reached 2.26 GW, doubling year-on-year.
In order to further promote the demand for photovoltaic installations, France has launched a number of support policies. For example, the implementation of feed-in tariffs for household photovoltaics allows the sale of photovoltaic power to the grid. In addition, in order to continue to stimulate users' enthusiasm for installing household photovoltaics and increase the surplus power of the power grid, subsidies are also directly provided to the electricity installed for household photovoltaics. Originally, only household photovoltaic projects with an installed capacity of less than 100 kilowatts could receive subsidies. Starting from October 2022, the French government will increase the capacity limit to 500 kilowatts.
In addition, the French government also hopes to further promote the implementation of photovoltaic power generation projects in centralized ground power stations. In 2024, France plans to publicly auction centralized ground power station photovoltaic power generation projects with a total scale of 12.48 GW, which is several times higher than the previous auction scale. From 2020 to 2022, the auction scale of French centralized ground power station photovoltaic power generation projects was 1.26 GW, 2.64 GW and 1.66 GW respectively.
Judging from the current contribution of photovoltaics to French power generation, the industry still has a long way to go in the future. As of the end of 2022, wind power and solar power accounted for 13% of France's power structure, which is far lower than nuclear power's 63%. In addition, hydropower and natural gas power generation accounted for 11% and 10% respectively.
Recharge proposed that France cannot rely solely on nuclear power, whether from the perspective of energy security or carbon neutrality. In 2022, due to hot weather and insufficient cooling water for nuclear power, France's nuclear power generation dropped to its lowest level in 33 years. To promote the development of renewable energy, France also needs more investment. Data shows that to achieve the 2030 installation target, France needs to invest 66 billion euros every year, and the current investment is far from enough.
policy or regression
Market worries are growing
In early January, France announced that it planned to revise its energy bill and released the draft to the public. The new energy bill updates nuclear power development goals, but does not set new wind power and photovoltaic development goals. This has caused public opinion to worry about the future development prospects of the French photovoltaic industry.
The French government believes that the new bill reaffirms its commitment to developing nuclear power. In the future, at least 6 and up to 14 new reactors will be built to achieve the transition to clean energy and achieve climate goals. However, some critics pointed out: "The French new energy bill is a step back. In order to further support nuclear power, it will not even set other renewable energy targets to avoid wind power and solar power from affecting the development of nuclear power."
Anne Georgelin, president of the French Renewable Energy Alliance, said that although the draft proposed efforts to promote the development of renewable energy, it did not set a renewable energy development target, which was "shocking."
Arnaud Goss, a lawyer who specializes in French environmental law, said bluntly: "If only nuclear power targets are quantified, the market and companies may give priority to the development of this field, and only develop wind power, solar power and other renewable energy fields if there is spare capacity."
However, an official from the French Ministry of Energy Transition said: "It is wrong to say that no renewable energy target has been set. Renewable energy development targets will be set in the future."
French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire also claimed that France will accelerate the deployment of renewable energy and will also formulate a long-term renewable energy development plan and related goals. The industry believes that this is the French government's response to the new energy bill's lack of consideration of renewable energy and overemphasis on nuclear power.
It is reported that the proposed new energy bill will be submitted to the French cabinet for subsequent review and decision. As of now, the French government has not disclosed information about adding renewable energy targets in the new bill, and market concerns still exist.