At present, the European photovoltaic manufacturing industry is on the road to rejuvenation. John Lindahl, Secretary-General of the European Solar Manufacturing Council, analyzed the challenges and opportunities faced by European photovoltaic manufacturers and explored how to form a set of goals for a complete photovoltaic industry chain of 100GW by 2030. .
In 2021, Meyer Burger's 400MW solar module line was officially launched. By 2022, its battery line will expand to 1.4GW, and its module line will expand to 1GW. The final annual production target is 5GW.
While Europe remains one of the world's largest PV installation markets, its once-booming PV manufacturing industry was stalled about a decade ago by rapidly rising Asian rivals.
In 2021, the EU reached an agreement on climate targets to cut net carbon emissions by 55% by 2030. At the same time, with the continuous improvement of the level of solar energy utilization and the increasingly prominent issue of sustainable development, in the past few years, the call for reviving the EU's photovoltaic manufacturing capacity has become more and more loud. Perhaps, 2022 will give the answer.
In April last year, the European Solar Manufacturing Council (ESMC) said that at least 75% of Europe's PV demand should be produced in Europe. However, according to data released by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE) in its 2021 Photovoltaic Report, although European polysilicon production capacity is 22.1GW in 2020, solar wafer production capacity is only 1.25GW, and solar cell production capacity is only 1.25GW. It is 650MW, and the solar module capacity is 6.75GW. Therefore, there is still a long way to go to realize the revival of the EU photovoltaic manufacturing industry.
Below is an analysis by Johan Lindahl, Secretary General of the European Solar Manufacturing Council ESMC, on the current state of PV development in Europe, the challenges and opportunities facing PV manufacturers, and identified plans to achieve GW-scale capacity.
1. Challenge:
1) China's intangible and extensive grants, loans, credits and tax support;
2) Obvious and extensive grant support from the US and India;
3) The deployment of EU photovoltaic innovation technology in the local market is limited, and intellectual property rights and patents are not properly protected in the EU external market;
4) European photovoltaic manufacturing and labor standards are strict, but there is no corresponding standard in the EU external market;
5) Potentially higher PV module pricing and supply chain issues are a structural issue.
2. Opportunities:
1) European PV industry production becomes cost-competitive. The price difference between European and Asian products has narrowed due to the current significant increase in production and shipping costs and delivery times for Asian products. For European PV manufacturing to be price-competitive, two conditions must exist, namely GW-scale manufacturing capacity; and a complete European manufacturing value chain. The EU needs to keep the value chain intact to meet at least part of our needs that don't need to be imported, despite the fact that imports are of course still an important factor.
2) Europe is still leading in PV technology innovation, but only if the industrial manufacturing base still exists. The traditional solar cell aluminum back surface technology (Al BSF) has a conversion efficiency of 18-22% and is currently being replaced by PERC technology and its evolution technology, which enables solar cell efficiency to reach 20-24%, while the production line upgrade cost Moderate. Based on heterojunction (HJT) or TOPCon technology, the third generation of high-efficiency photovoltaic cells will achieve 23-26% efficiency. At present, its production cost is the same as that of PERC cells, both at 20-30 cents/Wp. High-efficiency batteries allow for competitive or even lower cost of electricity generation even with higher component prices. In the future, there may be further technological improvements, such as perovskite-silicon tandem cells with efficiencies exceeding 30%. These technological advancements are still leading the way in Europe, paving the way for the global deployment of terawatt-scale PV.
3) The long-term development policy framework for renewable energy in Europe has been established. The European Green Deal and wave of innovation have built confidence for investors and developers.
4) The emergence of sustainable, carbon-neutral eco-design concepts and specific standards under consideration, including recently announced measures to address distortions in foreign subsidies in the EU market, are the driving force behind the EU’s transition to a green and innovative energy system and economy. Growing customer concerns about carbon footprints will have a structural impact on PV manufacturing. Compared to current Asian products, using PV modules produced in Europe reduces carbon consumption, avoids long-distance transportation, and better eco-design parameters. The importance of this aspect will increase over the next few years.
5) New deployment methods incorporating photovoltaic concepts into integrated systems enable European photovoltaic manufacturing to realize a potential competitive advantage. Various innovative solutions are being developed and growing rapidly in various fields, including Building + Photovoltaic (BIPV), Vehicle + Photovoltaic (VIPV), Floating Body + Photovoltaic (FPV) and Agriculture + Photovoltaic (APV). European PV manufacturers can benefit from specific European and local needs, as integrated systems require more individualized solutions.
3. The proportion of global production capacity of the European photovoltaic industry in each link of the industry chain in 2020 is as follows:
1. 11% of global PV silicon production: 22.1GW capacity (Elkem and Wacker)
2. 1% of global PV silicon solar wafer production: 1.25GW capacity (Norsun, Norwegian Crystals and EDF Photowatt)
3. 0.4% of global photovoltaic silicon cell production: 0.65GW capacity (Solitek/Valoe, Enel, Ecosolifer)
4. 3% of global module production: 6.75GW capacity (29 different companies)
5. 25% of inverter output.
In the above scenario, Europe's installed PV capacity in 2020 accounts for 15% of the global total. Therefore, if Europe wants to become self-reliant, it needs to step up the production of wafers, cells and modules.
Currently, Europe has a very negative trade deficit in photovoltaic cells and modules. The table below shows the total value of import and export trade of photosensitive semiconductor devices (including photovoltaic cells assembled into modules or panels) and light-emitting diodes in Europe.
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