In 2021, solar, wind and other renewable energy sources (including biomass, geothermal and hydro) will add more than 2,250 megawatts of new electricity per month.
That's according to the SUN DAY Campaign, which uses data from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Utility-scale renewable energy facilities added at least 18,255 megawatts of new generation in the first 10 months of 2021, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's "Energy Infrastructure Update" (data as of Oct. 31), the report said. installed capacity.
Additionally, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts that small-scale distributed solar, less than 1 megawatt, is expected to grow by about 5,100 megawatts in 2021. The two figures lead Solar Day to conclude that utility-scale renewables combined with distributed solar could add more than 2,250 megawatts of installed capacity per month.
In December, the Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie said trade policy uncertainty and supply chain constraints had driven the price of solar power up across all market segments. They warned that logistical challenges and rising prices in the solar supply chain could dampen solar deployment in the year ahead, resulting in a 7.4 gigawatt (25%) drop in forecast energy in 2022 from previous forecasts.
An analysis by the industry trade group said solar projects will continue to face supply chain challenges in the near term. The company added that the clean energy provisions in the Build Back Better Act would spur solar market growth and avoid an expected economic slowdown.
Days after the SEIA outlook was released, Senator Joe Manchin publicly declared his opposition to Build Back Better, drawing the ire of the White House, United Mine Workers of America Other groups are urging the senator to reconsider his objections.
In the first 10 months of 2021, solar and wind added 9,604 megawatts and 8,580 megawatts of generating capacity, respectively, according to an analysis by Solar Day Motion. Renewables provided 83.6% of all new generation capacity at the end of October, including new hydro (28 MW), geothermal (25 MW) and biomass (18 MW). Natural gas capacity increased by 3,549 MW, while new oil and coal capacity increased by 19 MW and 11 MW, respectively. No new nuclear capacity additions were calculated in 2021.
Renewable energy installed capacity is currently at 25.47%. This is up from 23.31% last year and 18.58% in 2016.
The company said the growth was "almost entirely attributable" to a nearly three-fold increase in wind power capacity and a 35-fold increase in solar power capacity. At present, the proportion of wind power generation in the country's power generation has risen from 3.80% in October 2011 to 10.54%. Utility-scale solar now accounts for 5.21% of total installed capacity, excluding small-scale distributed solar.
In the first 10 months of 2021, both solar and wind set new records for installed capacity growth. As of October, 9,604 MW of new solar capacity was added, surpassing the 6,516 MW in the same period in 2020, or 3,758 MW in 2019. Likewise, the 8,580 MW of new wind capacity additions surpassed the 7,161 MW reported in 2020, or the 4,721 MW added in 2019.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Electricity Monthly Report, utility-scale solar and wind power generation increased by 27.9% and 11.1%, respectively, in the first 10 months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020. Solar Day said wind currently accounts for 8.64% of U.S. electricity production, while solar (including small-scale solar) accounts for 4.08%.
Both solar and wind energy will continue to grow in 2024. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said as much as 170,941 megawatts of new solar capacity could be under construction, with 52,692 megawatts classified as "high-probability additions."
A year ago, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission reported 128,001 megawatts of solar capacity over a three-year period, of which 32,784 megawatts were classified as "high probability." Also, by October 2024, 71,929 new wind capacity additions could be added. megawatts, of which 23,180 megawatts are classified as "high probability," and the number of retirees is expected to be around 150 megawatts.
Solar Day said in its analysis that a "high probability" increase in utility-scale solar and wind capacity reflects a projected net increase of 75,630 megawatts. This figure does not include new additions to distributed small-scale solar or hydro, geothermal and biomass. By comparison, the net increase for natural gas will be around 14,327 MW.
If the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's latest "high probability" forecast materializes, renewables should account for more than 30 percent of the nation's total available electricity generation by October 2024, according to the Solar Day analysis. Utility-scale solar and wind accounted for 9.00% and 11.81%, respectively.