India may miss its 2022 solar target of 100 GW by 27%, largely because of unsatisfactory growth in rooftop solar, says a new report from JMK Research. While utility-scale solar is on track to achieve nearly 97% of the 60 GW target installed capacity in 2022, the rooftop solar sector will be 25 GW short of the 40 GW target.
According to a new report from JMK Research and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), India will fall well short of its 100 GW solar capacity target in 2022, largely due to the slow adoption of rooftop solar.
The report highlights that rooftop solar is a pain point in India's journey to reach its 100 GW target. The report forecasts a 25 GW shortfall in reaching the 40 GW rooftop solar target by December 2022, with utility-scale solar just 1.8 GW away.
As of December 2021, India has cumulatively installed 55 GW of solar capacity, with grid-connected utility-scale projects accounting for 77% (42.3 GW) and the remainder from grid-connected rooftop solar (20%) and mini or micro off-grid project (3%).
All India is expected to add another 19 GW of solar capacity in 2022 – 15.8 GW from utility-scale projects and 3.5 GW from rooftop solar, which will bring the cumulative utility-scale PV capacity to 58.2 GW by the end of December, with rooftop solar Solar, on the other hand, has a cumulative total of 15 GW.
Report co-author Jyoti Gulia, founder of JMK Research, said, "Even with this capacity increase, India's 100 GW solar target will be 27% unattainable."
At the current pace, the report believes that India will be about 86 GW behind its solar target of 300 GW by 2030.
“Utility-scale solar capacity additions are largely on track. All India will achieve nearly 97 percent of its 60 GW target,” Gulia said. “This requires us to make a more concerted effort to scale rooftop solar.”
challenge
From supply chain disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, to entrenched policy restrictions, the report noted that India’s growth in rooftop solar (on-site solar power) and open solar (off-site solar) installations has been hampered.
Vibhuti Garg, energy economist at IEEFA, noted, “The projected 27 GW shortfall in the solar target for 2022 can be attributed to a number of challenges that are slowing the overall progress of the renewable energy target.” These challenges include regulatory hurdles, net Metering restrictions, basic tariffs applied to imported cells and components and double burden due to issues with the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy approved models and manufacturer lists, supply agreements not signed, banking restrictions, financing issues, delays or denials of open access approvals grants, and the unpredictability of future open access fees.
Akhil Thayillam, senior research associate at JMK, said, "Policies and regulations from the central and state governments must be aligned to support the entire solar industry, especially the flagging rooftop and open access project segments of the market."
Suggest
The report proposes a number of short- and long-term measures to get India back on track to meet its solar targets.
Short-term measures include a unified policy across the country for at least the next five years, consistent rules on net metering and bank financing measures, and the removal of restrictions on renewable energy financing at least until national targets for rooftop and opening are achieved.
Longer-term measures include stricter enforcement of renewable energy purchase obligations, improved financial conditions, possible privatization of distribution companies, reductions in cross-subsidized surcharges for industrial and commercial customers, and capital subsidies for battery storage systems.
"In the case of rooftop solar, state-level efforts such as Gujarat's Surya scheme need to be replicated in other states in the short term to help increase installed capacity across the country," Gulia said.
“It is also possible that the government will aggressively push to accelerate solar capacity additions in the near term, helping to reach the 100 GW target by 2022 by reallocating some unmet rooftop targets to utility-scale generation.