Europe's energy crisis faces 10 trillion warning.
Currently, the European energy market is facing the most dangerous moment.
On September 6, local time, Statoil warned that the current margin call for energy trading in Europe is at least $1.5 trillion. Helge Haugane, the company's senior vice president for gas and power, said the $1.5 trillion is just capital being called on margin calls, and if companies need to put in that much money, it means the market's liquidity dries up, and unless governments expand liquidity, Europe Energy trading risks will come to a standstill. European traders also warned that the current amount of cash needed in European energy markets has reached incredible levels.
Due to the sharp rise in the prices of natural gas and electricity futures in Europe, the short positions established by European power and energy giants in the futures market suffered heavy losses, and huge margins were required, otherwise they would face the risk of "liquidation". According to Jakob Magnussen, chief credit analyst at Danske Bank in Denmark, margin calls are exploding.
At present, the European market is worried that if the price of natural gas continues to soar, it may lead to a liquidity crisis or even bankruptcy of European energy giants, which will then spread to the entire European economy and eventually lead to a "Lehman Crisis" in the energy industry.
The worsening energy crisis has darkened the European economy, with European corporate profit margins set for the biggest drop since the global financial crisis, according to Morgan Stanley's leading margin indicator.
Among them, the German energy giant Uniper has issued an "emergency signal". On September 5, local time, Uniper CEO Klaus-Dieter Maubach said that the 7 billion euros of aid funds may be exhausted in September due to the huge losses caused by the replacement of Russian natural gas supplies.
According to the aid package introduced by the German government, the German government will provide further support if Uniper's losses due to gas shortages cannot be offset by the operating profits of the company's other businesses and exceed 7 billion euros.
According to the financial report disclosed by Uniper, in the first half of 2022, the company lost more than 12 billion euros (about 83.4 billion yuan), making it the largest half-year loss in the history of German companies.
Uniper is Germany's largest importer of Russian gas and one of Europe's largest utilities. The German government is concerned that if Uniper collapses, it could trigger a collapse of the entire energy sector, possibly even spreading to the wider economy.
German Economy Minister Habeck said Uniper was in a situation similar to that of Lehman Brothers, whose collapse triggered the 2008 financial crisis.
At present, the German government has agreed to provide further support to Uniper, and its application for an additional 4 billion euro credit line has been agreed and signed.
Winter is coming in Germany?
Perhaps the bigger trouble for the German government is that the natural gas reserve plan may not be completed, and this winter will be particularly cold.
On September 5, local time, people familiar with the matter said that after Russia announced the indefinite shutdown of the Nord Stream pipeline, Germany is unlikely to achieve its goal of filling natural gas storage to 95% in early November.
According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, as of September 5, the European Union's natural gas storage rate has reached 81.9%, of which Germany's gas storage rate is 86.1%.
Once the temperature in Germany starts to drop, the national gas consumption will increase substantially, the net inflow of natural gas inventories in Germany will drop significantly, and there is even a possibility of a net outflow.
Klaus Mueller, president of Germany's main energy regulator, the Federal Network Agency, warned that even if German gas storage reaches the target level, Germany's stockpiles will only be enough to cover demand for two and a half months against the backdrop of a complete cut-off from Russia. .
At present, Germany is preparing for the worst. German Economy Minister Habeck said that Germany has three existing nuclear power plants, two of which will remain in standby until April 2023, in case there is enough power supply in Germany when there is a power shortage this winter. , hopefully for the worst.
In the short term, the probability of Russia recovering gas supply is low. On September 5, local time, Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, said that Western sanctions against Russia were the main culprit for the "cutting off" of the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline. Without the lifting of sanctions, repairs to the pipeline will be difficult to complete and gas supply to Europe will not be fully restored.
In this regard, Morgan Stanley predicts that the pipeline will not resume supply this year and next, and the affected gas transmission volume will be about 30 million cubic meters per day. In the fourth quarter of this year, the natural gas supply gap in Europe will reach 181 million cubic meters. /sky.
There are various signs that the winter in Germany in 2022 may be particularly cold, while France chooses to "warm up" with it.
According to CCTV reports, on September 5, local time, French President Macron held a video conference with German Chancellor Scholz. Macron said at a news conference after the video conference that if the energy crisis does not ease this winter, France is ready to send natural gas to Germany if necessary, and will finalize a gas connection to Germany in the next few weeks.
In addition, Macron also said that France agrees with the EU-level unified purchase of natural gas, because it will be possible to purchase natural gas at a lower price, France will support restrictions on Russian natural gas prices, and support a windfall tax on the profits of energy companies within the EU .