The EU plans to cut gas imports from Russia by two-thirds within a year.
The EU green commissioner says that to meet climate goals, the long-term use of LNG and coal needs to be offset by increased renewable energy.
In response, the IEA also provided the EU with 10 recommendations aimed at diversifying Europe's energy supply, accelerating the move towards renewable energy and focusing on energy efficiency.
IEA chief economist Fatih Birol said in a written statement:
No one has any illusions anymore. Russia's use of its natural gas resources as an economic and political weapon shows the need for Europe to move quickly to prepare for huge uncertainty about Russian gas supplies next winter.
Europe wants to reduce reliance on Russian gas by two-thirds
The European Commission is revising its energy strategy in the wake of Russia's military action to reduce the Kremlin's influence.
On Tuesday, the Financial Times said in a draft proposal seen by the EU, the EU would require 80% of gas storage capacity to be filled by September 30, compared with about 30% now. The EU will allow governments to pay companies to hold gas.
As the JPMorgan chart shows, Europe's oil and gas production has been steadily declining in recent years, while imports from Russia have been rising steadily, due to the continent's fascination with ESG.
Therefore, for Europe's plan to have any chance of success, it will not only require action from member states (many of which are already uneasy about the investment required by the Commission's energy transition plan and are now struggling to rein in the political impact of soaring energy costs), but also Action from the rest of the world is required.
While the European Commission believes the bloc already has enough gas to get through the rest of the winter even in the event of a sudden supply disruption from Russia, energy inventories are dwindling. Shell announced today that it is restricting some fuel sales in Germany. The EU's executive body will advise member states to start filling storage tanks now in preparation for next winter.
The European Commission has also said it wants to speed up the implementation of the "Green Deal" - reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% from 1990 levels by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
How to reduce?
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the EU imported 155 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia last year, accounting for nearly half (45%) of its gas imports and nearly 40% of its total use. Italy, Germany and several Central European countries are particularly dependent on Russia: it also provides about 25% of its crude oil supply.
According to Bloomberg, the draft proposal would add more LNG imports and pipeline supplies from outside Russia, more renewable gas, while saving energy and shifting to electrification. This would make it possible for the EU to effectively replace the 155 billion cubic meters of gas it currently imports from Russia.
This would allow Europe to have as much as 50 billion cubic meters of gas per year from new LNG sources, 10 billion cubic meters from pipelines from other suppliers, 20 billion cubic meters from new wind power, and would reduce demand for gas-fired power stations demand.
According to the Financial Times, EU Green Deal commissioner Frans Timmermans said the EU could import more LNG, quickly boost renewable power generation and cut demand through energy efficiency measures. He acknowledged that countries may have to burn coal for extended periods of time to avoid switching to natural gas.
But Timmermans insists that as long as renewables increase rapidly, the EU is still likely to meet its green targets:
(If we) speed up the transition to renewable energy, while improving our energy efficiency and diversifying our energy resources, we could reduce our reliance on Russian gas by two-thirds by the end of this year.
Creating your own energy source is the smartest and most urgent option.
Timmermans said the EU could increase gas imports from other sources, including 10 billion cubic meters of pipeline gas from countries such as Azerbaijan, and 50 billion cubic meters of LNG from Qatar, Egypt and even Australia.
In addition, the IEA also made 10 recommendations to the EU to reduce dependence on Russian natural gas, including not renewing gas supply contracts with Russia, storing more natural gas, and accelerating the deployment of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar energy.