China's photovoltaic industry is currently in an explosive growth phase
This year is a strong year for listed photovoltaic companies. In the entire industry chain, from upstream polysilicon and monocrystalline silicon wafers, to midstream photovoltaic glass, solar cells and other materials, to downstream inverters, solar panels, etc., various listed companies have been chased by market funds . With the advent of the era of photovoltaic grid parity, benefiting from the changes in the global energy structure under the acceleration of the carbon emission reduction process, the photovoltaic industry will have a broader development space in the future.
In the third quarter of 2020, both the revenue and profit of the photovoltaic industry achieved strong growth, of which revenue was 60.792 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.25%, and net profit attributable to the parent was 9.365 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 93.07%. The profitability of the industry has also improved significantly, achieving a net profit margin of 15.40%, an increase of 3.66 percentage points year-on-year. Cash flow improved significantly, and net operating cash inflow was 12.355 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 82.94%.
Behind the high prosperity of the entire industry, there is also the impact of the arrival of the era of photovoltaic parity. In the past ten years, along with policy subsidies, the photovoltaic industry's own cost reduction effect has been obvious, manifested in the continuous reduction of silicon material and non-silicon costs, and the continuous improvement of battery efficiency. Taking China as an example, the cost per unit of photovoltaic power generation in 2018 has been reduced by 77% compared to 2010. The cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour is close to the average cost of domestic thermal power generation. In some areas, grid parity is close to reality, and photovoltaic power generation has now become renewable. The main choice in the energy sector.
From the perspective of industry growth space, in September 2020, the EU once again stepped up its energy-saving and emission-reduction policies, and raised its greenhouse gas emission reduction target in 2030 from the original 40% to 55%. Specific measures include increasing the share of renewable energy power generation. , Further deployment of new energy vehicles, etc. China proposes to increase its national independent contribution, adopt more powerful policies and measures, strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The acceleration of the carbon emission reduction process means that the global demand for fossil energy will soon usher in a peak. To achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, on the power supply side, countries need to change the current power generation structure based on fossil energy combustion and increase the share of clean energy power generation. ratio.
With carbon as the anchor under China’s “30·60” goal, it will gradually start the incremental and stock replacement of traditional thermal power; at the same time, the global photovoltaic market continues to develop diversified, as the strategic position of renewable energy planning in various countries increases, and the economy Under the volatility, the attractiveness of investment in photovoltaic projects has increased, and the growth of industry demand may accelerate. It is estimated that the global new installed capacity of photovoltaic will reach about 118/155/190GW in 2020-2022 (domestic 38/50-55/60-65GW). The average annual installed capacity in the next 5 years is expected to exceed 200GW.