Recently, the Council of Energy, Environment and Water Resources (CEEW) of India stated that with subsidies from the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), India’s household rooftop photovoltaic potential will reach 32GW.
The research report "Mapping the Potential of Household Rooftop Photovoltaics in India" by CEEW, an Indian policy research institution, pointed out that the economic potential of household rooftop photovoltaics in India is about 118GW, provided that the scale of rooftop photovoltaics must be limited to meet household electricity needs.
However, based on consumers' willingness to pay and investment returns within five years, the market potential for household PV will be reduced to approximately 11GW without taking into account capital subsidies.
Currently, India’s rooftop photovoltaic capacity reaches 11GW, including commercial and residential projects
This is because most household consumers have relatively low electricity usage, meaning that even if it is technically feasible, solar is not economically viable for them without financial backing.
CEEW added that with capital subsidies provided by MNRE, the market potential could increase to 32GW. MNRE announced in 2022 that it would provide a capital subsidy of INR 14,558 (USD 175.12) per kilowatt for rooftop photovoltaic projects of 1-3kW under the MNRE Phase II rooftop photovoltaic plan.
By extending the payback period to eight years, the potential for residential rooftop PV in India can even rise to 68GW, as more households will be able to recoup their investment costs over a longer period of time, even with lower electricity usage.
At present, including commercial and residential installed capacity, India's rooftop photovoltaic installed capacity has reached 11GW, of which only 2.7GW is in the residential field.
CEEW CEO Arunabha Ghosh said, "From 2GW in 2010 to 72GW of PV capacity now, India's solar revolution must reach households to realize its full potential. But to achieve this, residents must have access to the right price and attractive incentives and get a convenient experience."
To further increase the adoption rate of household rooftop PV, CEEW recommends the introduction of targeted capital subsidies, especially for 0-3kW rooftop PV systems. In addition, the government can also recognize rooftop photovoltaic systems below 1kW in policies and regulations. CEEW added that this type of household rooftop photovoltaic system has great potential.
In addition, in terms of willingness to install rooftop photovoltaic systems, household consumers in Gujarat have the strongest willingness, reaching 13%, while the national average is only 5%. However, residents in various states believe that the investment cost of rooftop photovoltaic systems is high, which affects their willingness to pay.
Countries around the world are installing more rooftop photovoltaic systems. In 2022, global rooftop installed capacity will account for 49.5% of new capacity, or 118GW.
According to forecasts from European solar trade body SolarPower Europe, the global rooftop photovoltaic industry will reach 268GW by 2027, exceeding the total size of the solar market in 2022.